2023 Week 14 · Dec 3, 2023, 1:00 AM · Bank of America Stadium (neutral site)

Louisville @ Florida State

Predicted scoreLean

Louisville

25.8

Florida State

31.0

Florida State win probability: 62%

Margin (Florida State − Louisville): 5.2 (80% range -16 to 27)

Total: 56.7 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Louisville 6 – Florida State 16 (margin error 4.8, total error 34.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.