2023 Week 14 · Dec 3, 2023, 1:00 AM · Lucas Oil Stadium (neutral site)

Michigan @ Iowa

Predicted scoreConfident

Michigan

32.0

Iowa

10.0

Iowa win probability: 6%

Margin (Iowa − Michigan): -21.9 (80% range -42 to -3)

Total: 42.0 (80% range 22 to 63)

Actual: Michigan 26 – Iowa 0 (margin error 4.1, total error 16.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.