2023 Week 13 · Nov 26, 2023, 1:00 AM · Carter-Finley Stadium

North Carolina @ NC State

Predicted scoreToss-up

North Carolina

27.4

NC State

26.9

NC State win probability: 49%

Margin (NC State − North Carolina): -0.5 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: North Carolina 20 – NC State 39 (margin error 19.5, total error 4.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.