Predicted scoreLean
Houston
27.7
UCF
35.1
UCF win probability: 67%
Margin (UCF − Houston): 7.4 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 62.7 (80% range 38 to 89)
Actual: Houston 13 – UCF 27 (margin error 6.6, total error 22.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.55% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.