2023 Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023, 5:00 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Kentucky @ Louisville

Predicted scoreLean

Kentucky

24.3

Louisville

28.9

Louisville win probability: 61%

Margin (Louisville − Kentucky): 4.6 (80% range -15 to 25)

Total: 53.2 (80% range 30 to 78)

Actual: Kentucky 38 – Louisville 31 (margin error 11.6, total error 15.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.