2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 8:30 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreLikely

Sam Houston

21.3

Western Kentucky

29.9

Western Kentucky win probability: 71%

Margin (Western Kentucky − Sam Houston): 8.6 (80% range -11 to 28)

Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Sam Houston 23 – Western Kentucky 28 (margin error 3.6, total error 0.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.