Predicted scoreToss-up
UNLV
25.1
Air Force
29.0
Air Force win probability: 60%
Margin (Air Force − UNLV): 3.9 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UNLV 31 – Air Force 27 (margin error 7.9, total error 3.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.