Predicted scoreLikely
Duke
31.4
Virginia
22.5
Virginia win probability: 29%
Margin (Virginia − Duke): -8.9 (80% range -29 to 11)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Duke 27 – Virginia 30 (margin error 11.9, total error 3.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.