Predicted scoreLikely
USC
28.1
Oregon
39.6
Oregon win probability: 75%
Margin (Oregon − USC): 11.5 (80% range -10 to 34)
Total: 67.7 (80% range 41 to 94)
Actual: USC 27 – Oregon 36 (margin error 2.5, total error 4.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 38 | 0.52% |
| 24 | 42 | 0.51% |
| 21 | 38 | 0.51% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.