2023 Week 11 · Nov 12, 2023, 3:00 AM · Albertsons Stadium
New Mexico @ Boise State
Predicted scoreConfident
New Mexico
20.8
Boise State
39.7
Boise State win probability: 88%
Margin (Boise State − New Mexico): 18.8 (80% range -2 to 39)
Total: 60.5 (80% range 35 to 87)
Actual: New Mexico 14 – Boise State 42 (margin error 9.2, total error 4.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 38 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.