2023 Week 11 · Nov 12, 2023, 1:00 AM · Kenan Stadium
Duke @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
Duke
27.5
North Carolina
26.4
North Carolina win probability: 47%
Margin (North Carolina − Duke): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Duke 45 – North Carolina 47 (margin error 3.1, total error 38.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.