2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 8:30 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreLikely

New Mexico State

22.8

Western Kentucky

32.9

Western Kentucky win probability: 73%

Margin (Western Kentucky − New Mexico State): 10.1 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 55.8 (80% range 33 to 80)

Actual: New Mexico State 38 – Western Kentucky 29 (margin error 19.1, total error 11.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.