Predicted scoreLikely
Alabama
29.6
Kentucky
21.2
Kentucky win probability: 29%
Margin (Kentucky − Alabama): -8.5 (80% range -28 to 11)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Alabama 49 – Kentucky 21 (margin error 19.5, total error 19.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.