2023 Week 11 · Nov 10, 2023, 12:30 AM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Virginia @ Louisville

Predicted scoreLikely

Virginia

19.9

Louisville

33.9

Louisville win probability: 81%

Margin (Louisville − Virginia): 14.0 (80% range -7 to 35)

Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: Virginia 24 – Louisville 31 (margin error 7.0, total error 1.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.