Predicted scoreLikely
Hawai'i
23.5
Nevada
33.0
Nevada win probability: 72%
Margin (Nevada − Hawai'i): 9.5 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Hawai'i 27 – Nevada 14 (margin error 22.5, total error 15.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 35 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.