2023 Week 9 · Oct 29, 2023, 2:30 AM · Mackay Stadium
New Mexico @ Nevada
Predicted scoreLean
New Mexico
24.0
Nevada
31.7
Nevada win probability: 68%
Margin (Nevada − New Mexico): 7.7 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 55.8 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: New Mexico 24 – Nevada 34 (margin error 2.3, total error 2.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.