2023 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023, 7:30 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Duke @ Louisville

Predicted scoreToss-up

Duke

26.7

Louisville

25.7

Louisville win probability: 47%

Margin (Louisville − Duke): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Duke 0 – Louisville 23 (margin error 24.1, total error 29.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.