2023 Week 8 · Oct 22, 2023, 1:00 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
Nevada @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Nevada
24.6
San Diego State
27.1
San Diego State win probability: 56%
Margin (San Diego State − Nevada): 2.6 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Nevada 6 – San Diego State 0 (margin error 8.6, total error 45.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.