2023 Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023, 11:30 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium

Duke @ Florida State

Predicted scoreLean

Duke

25.5

Florida State

31.6

Florida State win probability: 65%

Margin (Florida State − Duke): 6.1 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 57.1 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Duke 20 – Florida State 38 (margin error 11.9, total error 0.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.