2023 Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023, 10:30 PM · Kenan Stadium
Virginia @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreLikely
Virginia
20.5
North Carolina
33.6
North Carolina win probability: 79%
Margin (North Carolina − Virginia): 13.1 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Virginia 31 – North Carolina 27 (margin error 17.1, total error 4.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.