Predicted scoreLean
Minnesota
19.3
Iowa
23.7
Iowa win probability: 61%
Margin (Iowa − Minnesota): 4.4 (80% range -14 to 24)
Total: 43.0 (80% range 23 to 65)
Actual: Minnesota 12 – Iowa 10 (margin error 6.4, total error 21.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.91% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.