Predicted scoreToss-up
Tennessee
25.2
Alabama
28.2
Alabama win probability: 57%
Margin (Alabama − Tennessee): 3.0 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 30 to 79)
Actual: Tennessee 20 – Alabama 34 (margin error 11.0, total error 0.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.