Predicted scoreLikely
NC State
20.1
Duke
30.9
Duke win probability: 75%
Margin (Duke − NC State): 10.9 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: NC State 3 – Duke 24 (margin error 10.1, total error 24.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.