2024 Postseason · Dec 31, 2024, 5:00 PM · Raymond James Stadium (neutral site)

Alabama @ Michigan

Predicted scoreLean

Alabama

23.6

Michigan

28.9

Michigan win probability: 63%

Margin (Michigan − Alabama): 5.3 (80% range -14 to 25)

Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Alabama 13 – Michigan 19 (margin error 0.7, total error 20.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.