Predicted scoreToss-up
UAB
28.0
UTSA
30.8
UTSA win probability: 57%
Margin (UTSA − UAB): 2.7 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 58.8 (80% range 34 to 84)
Actual: UAB 20 – UTSA 41 (margin error 18.3, total error 2.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.