Predicted scoreToss-up
UNLV
27.4
Nevada
24.0
Nevada win probability: 42%
Margin (Nevada − UNLV): -3.4 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 28 to 76)
Actual: UNLV 45 – Nevada 27 (margin error 14.6, total error 20.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.