Predicted scoreLikely
Iowa
15.8
Wisconsin
24.1
Wisconsin win probability: 72%
Margin (Wisconsin − Iowa): 8.3 (80% range -10 to 27)
Total: 39.9 (80% range 20 to 61)
Actual: Iowa 15 – Wisconsin 6 (margin error 17.3, total error 18.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.99% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.92% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 21 | 0.86% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.