2024 Postseason · Dec 28, 2024, 10:45 PM · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (neutral site)

East Carolina @ NC State

Predicted scoreLikely

East Carolina

20.6

NC State

30.4

NC State win probability: 73%

Margin (NC State − East Carolina): 9.8 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: East Carolina 26 – NC State 21 (margin error 14.8, total error 3.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.