2023 Week 7 · Oct 12, 2023, 11:30 PM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
SMU @ East Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
SMU
30.2
East Carolina
30.9
East Carolina win probability: 52%
Margin (East Carolina − SMU): 0.7 (80% range -21 to 22)
Total: 61.1 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: SMU 31 – East Carolina 10 (margin error 21.7, total error 20.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.