2023 Week 6 · Oct 8, 2023, 12:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
TCU @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLean
TCU
29.4
Iowa State
25.4
Iowa State win probability: 40%
Margin (Iowa State − TCU): -4.1 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: TCU 14 – Iowa State 27 (margin error 17.1, total error 13.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.