2023 Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023, 11:37 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Notre Dame @ Louisville

Predicted scoreLean

Notre Dame

32.6

Louisville

24.8

Louisville win probability: 32%

Margin (Louisville − Notre Dame): -7.8 (80% range -28 to 13)

Total: 57.4 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Notre Dame 20 – Louisville 33 (margin error 20.8, total error 4.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.