2023 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2023, 1:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium

Florida International @ New Mexico State

Predicted scoreLean

Florida International

23.7

New Mexico State

30.0

New Mexico State win probability: 65%

Margin (New Mexico State − Florida International): 6.3 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Florida International 17 – New Mexico State 34 (margin error 10.7, total error 2.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.