2023 Week 5 · Oct 1, 2023, 12:00 AM · Falcon Stadium
San Diego State @ Air Force
Predicted scoreLikely
San Diego State
21.5
Air Force
30.4
Air Force win probability: 72%
Margin (Air Force − San Diego State): 8.9 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 28 to 76)
Actual: San Diego State 10 – Air Force 49 (margin error 30.1, total error 7.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:11 PM | 8.9 | 51.9 | 72% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:41 PM | 8.9 | 51.9 | 72% |