2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 11:30 PM · Wallace Wade Stadium
Notre Dame @ Duke
Predicted scoreLean
Notre Dame
30.6
Duke
24.6
Duke win probability: 36%
Margin (Duke − Notre Dame): -5.9 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Notre Dame 21 – Duke 14 (margin error 1.1, total error 20.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:40:58 PM | -5.9 | 55.2 | 36% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:39 PM | -5.9 | 55.2 | 36% |