2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 11:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Texas State @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreLean
Texas State
27.6
Southern Miss
21.6
Southern Miss win probability: 35%
Margin (Southern Miss − Texas State): -5.9 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Texas State 50 – Southern Miss 36 (margin error 8.1, total error 36.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:10 PM | -5.9 | 49.2 | 35% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:38 PM | -5.9 | 49.2 | 35% |