Predicted scoreConfident
Oregon
38.0
Stanford
19.6
Stanford win probability: 12%
Margin (Stanford − Oregon): -18.4 (80% range -39 to 3)
Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Oregon 42 – Stanford 6 (margin error 17.6, total error 9.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 42 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:10 PM | -18.4 | 57.6 | 12% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:37 PM | -18.4 | 57.6 | 12% |