Predicted scoreLikely
Hawai'i
24.7
UNLV
34.0
UNLV win probability: 71%
Margin (UNLV − Hawai'i): 9.2 (80% range -12 to 31)
Total: 58.7 (80% range 34 to 85)
Actual: Hawai'i 20 – UNLV 44 (margin error 14.8, total error 5.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:08 PM | 9.2 | 58.7 | 71% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:36 PM | 9.2 | 58.7 | 71% |