2023 Week 5 · Sep 29, 2023, 11:00 PM · Carter-Finley Stadium
Louisville @ NC State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Louisville
31.0
NC State
27.6
NC State win probability: 42%
Margin (NC State − Louisville): -3.4 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 58.6 (80% range 34 to 84)
Actual: Louisville 13 – NC State 10 (margin error 0.4, total error 35.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:00 PM | -3.4 | 58.6 | 42% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:28 PM | -3.4 | 58.6 | 42% |