2023 Week 5 · Sep 29, 2023, 12:00 AM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston
Predicted scoreLikely
Jacksonville State
20.2
Sam Houston
13.1
Sam Houston win probability: 30%
Margin (Sam Houston − Jacksonville State): -7.2 (80% range -24 to 10)
Total: 33.3 (80% range 16 to 52)
Actual: Jacksonville State 35 – Sam Houston 28 (margin error 0.2, total error 29.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 7 | 1.35% |
| 14 | 7 | 1.26% |
| 24 | 7 | 1.13% |
| 14 | 14 | 1.13% |
| 17 | 10 | 1.12% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:00 PM | -7.2 | 33.3 | 30% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:28 PM | -7.2 | 33.3 | 30% |