2023 Week 4 · Sep 24, 2023, 3:59 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

New Mexico State @ Hawai'i

Predicted scoreLean

New Mexico State

27.5

Hawai'i

35.3

Hawai'i win probability: 67%

Margin (Hawai'i − New Mexico State): 7.8 (80% range -14 to 29)

Total: 62.8 (80% range 38 to 90)

Actual: New Mexico State 17 – Hawai'i 20 (margin error 4.8, total error 25.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.