2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 11:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Nevada @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLean
Nevada
22.6
Texas State
29.1
Texas State win probability: 66%
Margin (Texas State − Nevada): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Nevada 24 – Texas State 35 (margin error 4.6, total error 7.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.