Predicted scoreConfident
UTSA
16.5
Tennessee
38.6
Tennessee win probability: 92%
Margin (Tennessee − UTSA): 22.1 (80% range 2 to 43)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 32 to 79)
Actual: UTSA 14 – Tennessee 45 (margin error 8.9, total error 3.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.75% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.