2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 4:00 PM · Huskie Stadium
Tulsa @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreToss-up
Tulsa
31.5
Northern Illinois
28.6
Northern Illinois win probability: 43%
Margin (Northern Illinois − Tulsa): -3.0 (80% range -25 to 18)
Total: 60.1 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Tulsa 22 – Northern Illinois 14 (margin error 5.0, total error 24.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.57% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.