2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 2:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium

Boise State @ San Diego State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Boise State

27.4

San Diego State

24.1

San Diego State win probability: 41%

Margin (San Diego State − Boise State): -3.4 (80% range -24 to 17)

Total: 51.5 (80% range 28 to 76)

Actual: Boise State 34 – San Diego State 31 (margin error 0.4, total error 13.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.