2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 2:30 AM · CEFCU Stadium
Air Force @ San José State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Air Force
28.3
San José State
25.1
San José State win probability: 42%
Margin (San José State − Air Force): -3.2 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Air Force 45 – San José State 20 (margin error 21.8, total error 11.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.