Predicted scoreLean
NC State
28.6
Virginia
23.6
Virginia win probability: 38%
Margin (Virginia − NC State): -5.0 (80% range -25 to 15)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: NC State 24 – Virginia 21 (margin error 2.0, total error 7.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.