2023 Week 3 · Sep 17, 2023, 12:00 AM · University Stadium (NM)

New Mexico State @ New Mexico

Predicted scoreToss-up

New Mexico State

26.8

New Mexico

28.7

New Mexico win probability: 55%

Margin (New Mexico − New Mexico State): 1.8 (80% range -19 to 22)

Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: New Mexico State 27 – New Mexico 17 (margin error 11.8, total error 11.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.