Predicted scoreLean
TCU
35.5
Houston
27.7
Houston win probability: 32%
Margin (Houston − TCU): -7.8 (80% range -30 to 14)
Total: 63.3 (80% range 38 to 90)
Actual: TCU 36 – Houston 13 (margin error 15.2, total error 14.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 38 | 21 | 0.52% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.