2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM · Kenan Stadium
Minnesota @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreLean
Minnesota
24.4
North Carolina
29.1
North Carolina win probability: 62%
Margin (North Carolina − Minnesota): 4.7 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Minnesota 13 – North Carolina 31 (margin error 13.3, total error 9.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.