2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 4:00 PM · Peden Stadium
Iowa State @ Ohio
Predicted scoreLikely
Iowa State
28.1
Ohio
19.2
Ohio win probability: 28%
Margin (Ohio − Iowa State): -8.9 (80% range -28 to 10)
Total: 47.3 (80% range 27 to 69)
Actual: Iowa State 7 – Ohio 10 (margin error 11.9, total error 30.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.